Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $3,054,699$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(3.26 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,017,849.5}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 74.3)}}\) (asimptote \(3,017,849.5\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $132,300$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(2.39 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{124,664.2}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 51.4)}}\) (asimptote \(124,664.2\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,968,937$ on 2020-07-08
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $275,003$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(7.05 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{391,225.6}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 97.4)}}\) (asimptote \(391,225.6\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $32,796$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(997 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,314.1}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 86.0)}}\) (asimptote \(44,314.1\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $27,891$ on 2020-07-08
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $108,334$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.89 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105,377.6}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 56.1)}}\) (asimptote \(105,377.6\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,786$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.43 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,626.5}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 53.2)}}\) (asimptote \(8,626.5\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $27,743$ on 2020-07-08
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $41,251$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.23 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{332,712.7}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 182.5)}}\) (asimptote \(332,712.7\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $819$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(47.3 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,767.1}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 130.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,767.1\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $20,963$ on 2020-07-08
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $39,588$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(2.12 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{64,955.3}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 108.2)}}\) (asimptote \(64,955.3\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $829$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(127 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{857.2}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 62.3)}}\) (asimptote \(857.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $18,703$ on 2020-07-08
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $25,978$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(170 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{177,446.4}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 147.3)}}\) (asimptote \(177,446.4\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $694$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(23 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.4\) days)
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $22,563$ on 2020-07-08
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $25,411$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(205 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{51,127.0}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 109.8)}}\) (asimptote \(51,127.0\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,053$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(8.38 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,424.2}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 85.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,424.2\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $20,640$ on 2020-07-08
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,566$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(179 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,540.1}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 119.6)}}\) (asimptote \(23,540.1\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $235$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(2.24 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.8\) days)
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,198$ on 2020-07-08
